Search results for "non linear time series"

showing 2 items of 2 documents

Testing for Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach

2001

Applied macroeconomists have tested for the government intertemporal solvency condition by either testing for linear stationarity in the total government deficit series or testing for linear cointegration between total government spending and total tax revenues. A number of authors have focused, in particular, on structural breaks in the government deficit process. In this paper, we use a smooth transition error correction model to test and estimate a shift in the adjustment toward a linear cointegration relationship between the government spending to output ratio and the total tax revenues to output ratio. Estimation results show that government authorities react only to large (in absolute…

Government spendingMacroeconomicsEstimationEconomics and EconometricsSolvencyCointegrationResidualnon linear time seriesintertemporal solvency smooth transitionError correction modelGovernment (linguistics)Tax revenuegovernment solvency; non linear time seriesEconometricsEconomicsgovernment solvency
researchProduct

Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system

2007

In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne and Masson (J Int Econ 50:327–350, 2000) regarding the evaluation of currency crisis. We contribute to the existing literature proposing the use of Markov regime-switching with time-varying transition probability model. Our empirical results suggest that the currency crises of the EMS were not due only to market expectations driven by external uncertainty, or ‘sunspots’, but also to fundamental variabl…

Statistics and ProbabilityMacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsMarkov chainDevaluationEuropean Monetary SystemMonetary economicsCurrency crisisProbability modelnon linear time seriesMathematics (miscellaneous)Currencynon linear time series; currency crisescurrency crisesEconomicsMarket expectationsCurrency crises Multiple equilibria Markov-switchingForeign exchange riskSocial Sciences (miscellaneous)
researchProduct